premier league winter transfers
Source: Manual research
Income
Expenditures
TRANSFER FLOW (€M)
| Winter window | Arrivals | Departures | Income (€m) | Expenses (€m) | Balance (€m) | Benchmark year | Brent avg ($/bbl) | USD/RUB avg | EU packages (2022+) | Top sectors targeted (≤5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/2017 | 80 | 86 | 57.1 | 32.47 | 24.63 | 2016 | 43.64 | 67.05 | — | finance; defence/arms; dual-use; energy (oil tech/services); territorial |
| 2017/2018 | 48 | 45 | 17.83 | 27.14 | -9.31 | 2017 | 54.13 | 58.33 | — | finance; defence/arms; dual-use; energy (oil tech/services); territorial |
| 2018/2019 | 55 | 47 | 66.26 | 59.53 | 6.74 | 2018 | 71.34 | 62.81 | — | finance; defence/arms; dual-use; energy (oil tech/services); territorial |
| 2019/2020 | 42 | 33 | 30.29 | 18.96 | 11.33 | 2019 | 64.3 | 64.71 | — | finance; defence/arms; dual-use; energy (oil tech/services); territorial |
| 2020/2021 | 53 | 55 | 6.7 | 16.19 | -9.49 | 2020 | 41.96 | 72.32 | — | finance; defence/arms; dual-use; energy (oil tech/services); territorial |
| 2021/2022 | 80 | 68 | 31.37 | 79.54 | -48.16 | 2021 | 70.86 | 73.71 | — | finance; defence/arms; dual-use; energy (oil tech/services); territorial |
| 2022/2023 | 57 | 37 | 23.66 | 28.27 | -4.61 | 2022 | 100.93 | 69.92 | 9 | finance/banks; energy; export controls (dual-use/tech); transport; media/info |
| 2023/2024 | 60 | 52 | 5.75 | 72.37 | -66.62 | 2023 | 82.49 | 85.54 | 3 | defence & dual-use; industrial/critical tech; energy; trade bans; anti-circumvention |
| 2024/2025 | 49 | 55 | 78.62 | 85.88 | -7.26 | 2024 | 80.52 | 92.88 | 3 | defence/industrial base; finance; transport/shipping; energy; anti-circumvention |
| 2025/2026 | 26 | 28 | 53.89 | 43.56 | 4 | 2025 | 69.14 | 83.78 | 4 | energy; finance; transport/shadow fleet; export controls; anti-circumvention |
Context
2022/23
A sharp cool-down — after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine the market turns cautious; sanctions and payment frictions add pressure, so clubs reduce risk.
2023/24
Spending jumps while sales income nearly disappears — squads still needed reinforcement, but selling abroad became difficult due to sanctions and payment constraints.
2024/25
Sales partially return, spending stays elevated — the market adapts to new rules, yet clubs still spend to stay competitive domestically.
2025/26
Things get quieter — budgets tighten, fewer big deals, more pragmatic moves.
2026
A caution-first scenario — while the war continues and constraints remain, expect more loans, free agents, and domestic moves; sales income will stay volatile.